多因素视角下商业信用期限决策的双层规划模型与实证研究

A Bilevel Programming Approach to Trade Credit Term Decision and Empirical Evidences

以往商业信用的理论通常是单视角的,本文试图在体现激励相容思想的双层规划框架下初步建立起一个能够综合财务、市场和成本因素的商业信用期限决策模型。在供应商和零售商详细建模的基础上,通过分析,将双层规划等价地转化为非线性规划。由约束条件和目标函数的分析,提炼出影响信用期限激励相容决策的关键因素包括融资能力、市场需求敏感性、成本结构。设计了三类因素变化的不同情景,模拟分析了三类因素的影响。利用中国的一组中小企业实际数据对模型与模拟分析的结论进行了实证检验。考虑到变量的内生性问题,分别从供应商和零售商的角度建立了两类联立方程实证模型,采用2sls,3sls,sur三类方法进行了模型的估计和检验。最终的结论表明,商业信用是一种重要的"激励—协调—利益分配"机制,它的决策是一个涉及多个公司运营层面的交互作用过程。资金成本是影响供应商信用期限决策的最重要因素,市场需求是影响(中小企业)零售商还款时间最重要的因素。

Previous theories concerning trade credit often fall short of single point of views. This paper seeks to set up a relatively comprehensive trade credit term decision model containing financing, marketing and cost factors under a bilevel programming framework which can embody the idea of incentive compatibility. Based on the analysis of supplier＇s and retailer＇s modeling, the bilevet programming is equivalently reduced to a nonlinear programming. Three key influencing factors on the incentive compatible credit term decisions are abstracted after detailed analysis of the constraints and objective function, that is, financing capacity, marketing demand sensitivity and cost structure. Then numerical experiments are conducted in different scenarios of these three factors to reveal how they impact on the final decisions. Finally, two kinds of empirical simultaneous equations to avoid endogenous are set up in perspectives of supplier and re- tailer respectively to test what theoretical models and numerical experiments predict using a sample of SME from China. It is proved that trade credit is an important incentive-coordination-allocation mechanism; its decision is an interactive process with multiple facets of cooperation having impacts on; and fund cost is the most concerned factor for supplier to choose credit term, while marketing demand factor influences （SME） retailer＇ s payment timing mostly.