储量不确定对可耗竭资源优化开采的影响研究

Study of Impact on Optimum Extraction of Exhaustible Resources under Stock Uncertainty

回采率是储量不确定的重要参数之一。利用回采率提高的概率、调整次数及调整幅度描述回采率不确定,给出回采率的调整方法,进而确定了有效可采储量,然后利用最优控制理论建立了可耗竭资源最优开采模型,确定了资源最优开采路径、影子价格和耗竭时间。结果表明:提高回采率,能增加企业资源供给量,延长采区的服务年限;回采率提高的越多,需要调整的次数也越多,回采率提高的概率较高时,相应调整次数可以减少些;在理论上验证了当前提高回采率政策的有效性。

Recovery rate is an important parameter of stock uncertainty. Using the probability of improved recovery rate, the number and extent of adjustment and the new recovery rate, recovery rate uncertainty is described. Then effective recoverable stock is determined. In the end, the model of optimal extraction of exhaustible resources is built by using the theory of optimal control. The expressions of optimal extraction path, shadow prices and exhaustible time are received. The results show that., the higher recovery rate is, the more resources are supplied and the longer service life of mining area is gained. Also the resources can be protected; higher recovery rate need more frequent to adjust. When probability of improved recovery rate is high, less frequency of adjustment is required. And it is proved in theory that the action to increase recovery rate is effective.