验前信息在导弹精度鉴定中的应用研究

An Application of Forward Testing Information to Accuracy Evalution of Missile

Ｂａｙｅｓ决策方法能有效地解决经典的导弹精度鉴定方法的困难，但验前信息在决策方法中至关重要。介绍了验前信息的获取途径以及验前概率的几种计算方法。还根据国内外精度鉴定的实践，指出利用仿真技术是获取验前信息的一条重要技术途径。

The Bayes statistical decision method may effectively solve the problems of classical method of accuracy evalution. But forward testing information is very important in statistical decision method. The technical path of gathering forward testing information and several methods to calculate forward testing probability are introduced in this paper. It is also pointed out that utilizing simulation technique is an important technical path for acquiring forward testing information on the basis of the experience of accuracy evalution both at home and abroad.