我国经济周期波动的成因及潜在因素

Reasons and Potential Factors of Chinese Economic Fluctuation

改革开放以来,我国宏观经济的长期走势看好,但在短期内呈现周期性波动。必须把握这种波动性从而避免经济波动"大起大落"。按照实际产出的构成成分(居民消费、政府消费、投资、净出口),使用方差分解法。从全期样本和滚动样本两方面探讨我国经济周期波动性减弱的成因,并针对可能扩大经济周期波动的潜在因素提出相应的对策建议。

Since reform and opening-up, the trend of China＇s macro-economic is upward in long-term, but in shortterm is periodic fluctuated. Probing into the cause of this kind of fluctuation reducing can benifit to avoid economic fluctuation radically, and to make macro-economic grow better and faster. According to the components of real output（household consumption, government consumption, investment, net exports） ,we probe into the cause of the allevi- ation of China＇s economic fluctuation since reform and opening-up by using variance decomposing method and provide corresponding policy suggestion according to the latent factor which maybe enlarge the fluctuation.