人民币汇率形成机制改革的多层面考察

Review on the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Forming Mechanism from Diversified Perspectives

人民币汇率形成机制改革的经济效应可以从宏观、微观和金融市场三个层面进行考察。从宏观层面看,汇率改革能够提高我国货币政策的独立性,但是对减少贸易失衡和调整国际收支的作用并不明显,反而由于持续的升值预期导致大规模资本流入,影响经济金融稳定。从微观层面看.人民币升值对纺织业等行业产生了比较明显的冲击,非贸易品部门则受益于人民币升值,FDI 投资区位的选择也发生了变化,这些都有利于我国转变过度外向型的经济结构。从市场层面看,更大的汇率弹性使企业和金融机构面临的外汇风险上升,但同时也有利于促进外汇市场发展和推动资本账户开放。

The economic effects of RMB exchange rate reform could be analyzed from macro perspective, micro perspective and market level. From macro perspective, the effect of the exchange rate reform on reducing trade imbalance and making balance of payments is not obvious, the continued appreciation of RMB leads to large-scale capital inflows and threatens the macroeconomic stability and financial stability. From the micro perspective, the appreciation of the RMB has a remarkable impact on the textiles industry and little impact on the FDI investment, non-trad- able goods sector would benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, which is conducive to the change of Chinese export-oriented economy. From a market perspective, greater exchange rate flexibility increases the foreign exchange risk of businesses and financial institutions, but also helps to promote the development of the foreign exchange market and capital account liberalization. In order to lower the risk of RMB exchange rate reform on Chinese economy, we propose the corresponding recommendations and supporting reform measures.