我国城市化阶段性演进特征及省际差异

Characters of Urbanization Development in China and Provincial Difference

随着城市化快速推进,现阶段我国城市化出现一些新特征与不同认识。基于最新统计数据。利用 S曲线模型、空间自相关、比较分析等方法对城市化时空特征与主要论争进行再考察。结果显示,我国城市化正处于 S 型曲线的中期阶段,空间上呈现出聚集特征,空间自相关明显。近几年城市化速度并非过快,但粗放型增长模式突出;区域间城市化水平差距不断拉大,但省际间的差异在缩小;大城市发展快于中小城市,初步体现出大城市优先发展规律。

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, some new characters and different viewpoints appeared. The characters and debates of urbanization are rediscovered through the methods such as S curve model, spatial autocorrelation and comparative analysis. Results show that urbanization in China lies to the middle stage of S curve. It has obvious character of agglomeration and spatial autocorrelation. The speed of urbanization is not too rapid, and extensive growth is prominent. The gap of urbanization among three regions is enlarged and difference among provinces is reduced. The law of large city＇s first growth can be seen because large cities grow rapider than medium and small cities. In the end, some recommends are discussed.