新古典增长理论50年:起源、发展和问题

Neo-classical Growth Theory in the Last 50 Years:Origin,Development and Problems

新古典增长理论起源于对古典经济学中要素贡献的思想和对凯恩斯宏观经济学"刀锋"条件下增长路径的批判,揭示技术进步是经济增长的根本动力。对50年来新古典增长理论的发展进行了分析和评论,利用计量经济模型表述了新古典增长理论的特征和思想精髓,通过美国一个世纪的经济增长事实检验了新古典增长理论的解释力,提出了未来发展方向和对我国增长战略的政策意义。

This paper reviews the development of the neoclassical growth theory in the last fifty years,shows its features and important conclusions by way of growth accounting framework,surveys its interpretation capacity to economic growth of America in the twentieth century,discusses three controversial issues: convergence of multinational growth,East Asian growth miracle and computer productivity paradox.It also points out the future development and its strategic significance for our economic growth.