旱涝灾害视野下中国粮食安全战略研究

Study on China's Grain Security Strategy from the Perspective of Droughts and Floods

笔者一项研究曾表明,中国粮食生产长期遭受各种自然灾害的威胁与破坏,自然灾害成为影响中国粮食生产的最持久因素。为深化粮食生产与自然灾害关系的研究,本文基于中国旱涝灾害频发的具体国情,尝试对1978-2006年粮食生产与旱涝灾害之间的关系展开实证研究,结果发现:旱灾和涝灾是中国最频发且影响粮食生产最重的两大自然灾害。这为中国应将着力强化农业水利设施建设以提升粮食生产能力作为国家粮食安全战略方向的政策主张提供了有力的经验证据。

The author＇s study shows that China＇s grain production has been suffering from all kinds of natural disasters for a long time and natural disasters are the most enduring factors affecting China＇ s grain production. To promote researching the relationship between food production and natural disasters, based on China＇ s specific national conditions of frequent droughts and floods, this article tries to conduct an empirical research on the relationship between food production and droughts and floods in 1978 -2006. The result is as follows： the droughts and floods are China＇s most frequent and serious natural disasters. This provides strong empirical evidence which show that governments should strengthen the agricultural irrigation and drainage facilities in order to enhance food production capacity.