摘要
通过单因子的相关分析,寻找在热带气旋外围影响下与深圳市最高气温密切相关的气象要素作为预报因子,用多元线性回归方法,建立受热带气旋外围影响下的高温定量预报方程,制作深圳未来24 h最高气温预报。业务试验预报结果表明,高温的定量预报没有出现漏报,误差较小,该方法有实用价值,可投入业务运行,对我国其它沿海地区作类似预报有一定的参考价值。
The quantitative 24-hour forecasting equation of high temperature for Shenzhen is established through multivariate linear regression, by means of the single-factor analysis method to find the factors closely related to high-temperature weather in Shenzhen under the influence of the peripheral sinking air of tropical cyclones. The trial operational use proved that the forecasting equation is practical, has small error, and can be put into operation. It can also be used as reference in high temperature weather forecasting for other coast areas of China.
出处
《气象科技》
2008年第6期750-754,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
高温预报
热带气旋
线性回归
high temperature, tropical cyclone, linear regression
