太原冬季采暖期气温变化特征与节能效应分析

Variation Characteristics of Air Temperature and Effect on Energy Saving in Heating Period in Taiyuan

采用太原市1951-2003年冬季采暖期逐日气温资料，应用气候方法分析了采暖期平均气温以及与能耗相关的采暖初日、终日、采暖度日等要素的变化特征。结果表明：采暖期气温存在明显升高趋势，而且在20世纪80年代末发生跃变；采暖初日在逐年推后，采暖终日的年代际变化振荡较大，90年代以来有明显提前趋势，采暖期在逐年缩短；采暖度日存在明显减少趋势。结合供暖指标，分别从平均气温升高、采暖期缩短及采暖度日减少等方面进行节能效应分析，指出有必要改变传统的采暖模式，城市采暖具有很大的节能潜力。

By using of daily temperature from 1951 to 2003 during heating periods in Taiyuan, the variation characteristics of mean temperatures during heating periods and elements about energy consumption （the dates of first and last days of heating periods, heating degree days, etc. ） are analyzed. The result indicates that： the temperatures in heating periods increased significantly, having a jump at the end of the 1980＇s; the dates of first days delayed year after year, and the dates of last days show an advanced tendency since the 1990s and remarkable inter-decadal changes, thus heating periods shortened year by year; heating degree days showed an obvious decreasing tendency. Based on heating indexes, an analysis of energy saving effect is made, which shows that there is high potential in energy saving in Taiyuan and it is necessary to change the traditional heating pattern.