浙江省禽流感流行的风险期研究

Potential Risk Period Analysis for Avian Influenza Prevailing in Zhejiang Province

利用浙江省1971～2000年月平均气温、湿度等气候资料以及传播禽流感的迁徙候鸟经停浙江省的主要时段等资料和途径，并根据已有研究提出的适宜禽流感流行的温度等气象指标，对禽流感在浙江省流行的风险期进行分析和研究。结果表明：浙江省11月到次年3月的气候条件适宜禽流感病毒存活与传播，其中2～3月为浙江省禽流感流行的高风险时段，12月和次年1月为中风险时段。

By using the data of monthly mean temperature and humidity from 1971 to 2000 in Zhejiang Province, as well as the times and routes of migratory birds＇ passing through Zhejiang Province, an analysis is made of the main periods of Avian Influenza （AI） prevailing in Zhejiang Province, aecording to the weather condition assessment standards such as temperature and humidity indexes presented by previous researchers, and the crucial periods with high risk for AI prevailing are identified. The results show that the climatic conditions from November of the current year to March of the next year are favorable to the surviving and spreading of AI in Zhejiang Province, especially in February and March, December and January is the middle risk period.