用短期降水预报做洪水预报与调度的应用试验

Application of Short-Range Weather Forecast in Flood Forecast and Water Resources Mangement

利用2003-2007年潘家口水库流域10场较大降水及其对应的河北省气象局MM5的面雨量预报数据，采用降水预报格点数据与水文洪水预报耦合的方法进行水库的洪水预报和调度，增长了水文洪水预报的预见期，在不增加水库工程投资，不增加上下游和工程风险的前提下，在汛期实施风险调度，以此发挥水库在洪水资源化调度中作用，解决防洪与蓄水的矛盾。

Using the precipitation data of 10 heavy rainfall events over the drainage area of the Panjiakou reservoir and the corresponding surface rainfall forecasts of the MM5 in Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau, combining the the precipitation forecast grid-point data with the hydrological flood forecasts, the flood forecasting and water resources mangement experiment for the reservoir was conducted, in which the forecast period of hydrological flood forecasting was increased. With the increased forecast lead time of the floods, it is possible to make the reservoir play a significant role in converting floods into water resources in flooding season without additional investment and without increasing the risk of the upper and lower reaches of the river.