辽宁省造林面积变化趋势及影响因素探析

Trend and Influencial Factors of Afforestation Area in Liaoning Province

通过对辽宁省1981～2006年造林面积变化的分析,发现造林面积在很大程度上受到政策的影响。利用基于时间序列的平稳性检验、协整检验分析影响辽宁省造林面积变化的其它因素,发现造林面积与造林成本、木材价格、木材产量以及利率之间存在长期均衡关系。以此为依据,提出加快木材市场化改革进程、拓宽林业融资渠道、加强森林采伐更新管理等增加辽宁省造林面积的政策建议。

Based on the data （ between 1981 and 2006） of the changes in afforestation area of Liaoning Province, the trend of afforestaion area is addressed and it is found that policy change has an important effect on afforestation area. Also, the influencial factors are analysed, using econometric methods such as Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration test, etc. The results show that afforestation area, afforestation cost, timber price, timber output and interest rate, etc are all cointegrated. Finally, some suggestions on related policy are made, SUCh as promoting the timber market reform, expanding financial channel and strengthening the management of forest logging slash.