气管支气管炎门诊人数与气象条件的关系

Analysis and Prediction of the Relationship between the Prevalence of Tracheobronchitis and Meteorological Conditions

[目的]研究气象条件的变化对气管支气管炎发病的影响程度,建立气象因子与门诊病人数趋势的预报模型,以便开展预测预报服务。[方法]收集湖州市中心医院和湖州市第一人民医院2006年10月至2007年12月门诊就诊资料和同期该地区气象资料,采用Pearson相关分析和Spearman相关分析,并用自动交互检测方法(AID)建立预报模型,采用SASEM4.1统计软件进行数据处理。[结果]湖州市气管支气管炎门诊人数存在明显的季节分布差异,夏季和冬季是此类疾病的2个高发季节,而春季和秋季门诊人数较少;其门诊人数与平均气压、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、水汽压、大气能见度等气象条件存在较好相关性;影响气管支气管炎门诊人数的主要气象因子有平均气压、能见度、日较差和水汽压,当平均气压≥1020.33hPa且能见度<6.2km时,气管支气管炎门诊人数最高。按周门诊人数拟合气管支气管炎预报模型,可将其门诊人数分为四个预测等级,模型拟合确定系数R2为0.539。[结论]平均气压、能见度、日较差和水汽压等气象因子与气管支气管炎门诊人数密切相关,可利用AID建立模型,开展预测预报,提醒市民注意防范。

[ Objective ] To study the influence of meteorological conditions on the prevalence of tracheobronchitis and to establish the best prediction model of the morbidity trends of tracheobronchitis associated with meteorological factors, further to offer service for early-alarming and prediction. [ Methods ] The data of outpatients from Oct-2006 to Dec-2007 in two hopsitals （ Huzhou Center Hospital and The First People＇ s Hospital of Huzhou ）and the daily meteorological data in the same period were collected, which were analyzed by Pearson correlation analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. The prediction model was established by using automatic interaction detector （ AID ）. All the analysis was done using SAS EM 4.1 software. [ Results ] The prevalence of tracheobronchitis were higher in spring and autumn. Average atmospheric pressure, average temperature, highest air temperature, lowest air temperature, water-vapeur pressure, degradation of visibility were positively correlated with the prevalence of tracheobronchitis. Factors that affected the incidence of tracheobronchitis were average atmospheric pressure, degradation of visibility, daily temperature difference and water-vapour pressure, The prevalence reached its highest level with average atmospheric pressure ≥ 1020.33 hPa and degradation of visibility 〈6.2 km. The alarming model and level were established by using weekly data of prevalence, with R^2=0.539. [ Conclusion ] Average atmospheric pressure, degradation of visibility, daily temperature difference and water-vapour pressure were closely associated with the prevalence of tracheobronchitis. AID can be used to established early-alarming and prediction model.