制度变迁、二元经济转型与我国经济增长:一种回归分析与因果推导

System Changes,Duality Economic Transformation and the Economic Growth of Our Country:A Regression Analysis and Causality Derivation

从总体上讲,我国近些年来的经济增长应是制度转轨、对外开放与二元经济转型等因素相互作用与协同发展的结果;在我国的经济增长过程中,制度——经济增长论与二元经济发展论可以同时成立;不过,从各因素对经济增长的总量贡献上看,二元经济转型的贡献要远大于其他因素。这也即说明了我国的经济增长不仅享受了渐进式的制度变迁的好处,而且也享受到了转轨的"后发优势"。当然,从各种因素对经济增长作用的发展趋势与作用的空间性上看,制约我国未来经济增长的核心经济因素将会从以往的经济制度瓶颈转向产业结构升级与技术进步上。

Generally speaking, the economic growth of our country in recent years should be the result of an interaction and coordinated development of system changes, opening to the outside world, and duality economic transformation. In the course of China＇ s economic growth, system economic growth theory and duality economic development theory may come into existence at the same time, but the contribution made by the duality economic transformation is far greater than the other factors if we view the aggregate devotion of each factor to the economic growth. This result reveals that our economic growth not only enjoys the benefit of advanced system changes, but also the goodness brought in by the changes of ＂after effect superiority＂. Of course, we should realize from the development trend and space of each factor to economic growth that the core factor restricting the future economic growth of our country will shift from the-previous system bottleneck to the upgrading of industrial structure and technology progress.