基于投入产出分析的虚拟水贸易量估算——以黑河流域张掖地区为例

Calculation of Virtual Water Consumption Based on Input-output Analysis:A Case Study of Zhangye in the Heihe River Basin

虚拟水贸易是一种新的水资源供应方式,虚拟水战略是贫水国家和地区解决水资源短缺和粮食安全问题的重要途径。虚拟水理论和虚拟水贸易是水资源管理中的一个新兴课题,其中虚拟水贸易量的估算是一个难点。采用投入产出法对2000年张掖地区的虚拟水贸易量进行了估算,较之以往的方法,其估算比较全面,计算方法相对简单,估算口径统一,可操作性强,估算结果比较准确。估算结果表明2000年张掖地区虚拟水贸易赤字达到5.68亿m3,为了缓解水资源紧缺问题,张掖地区必须改变其虚拟水贸易策略。

Virtual water trade is a new way of supplying water resources and is used as a strategy for alleviating water scarcity and achieving water and food security in many areas short of water. Virtual water trade and its theory are a new field of water management, so the calculation of virtual water consumption is difficult. This paper is an attempt to take Zhangye in the Heihe River basin as an exampleand explore a new way to assess vitural water consumption based on input-output analysis, the methodology is proved to be a tool for virtual water assessment. Research results show that the deficit of virtual water trade of Zhangye in 2000 reaches 5.68 × 10^8 ma , which is obviously not fit for its water endowments, so it is imperative for Zhangye to change its virtual water strategy for solving water shortage and security problems.