基于微观仿真的快速路短时交通流预测

Freeway Short-time Traffic-flow Forecast Based on Micro-simulation

利用微观交通仿真技术可以对快速路上的交通进行短时预测。将快速路上的线圈采集的实时数据输入本文所述的交通仿真系统进行仿真,可以预测一段时间以后的交通状况。沿着这个思路,描述如何利用仿真技术进行短时交通预测,特别是对如何建立满足实时性和动态性要求的交通生成模型进行了详细的阐述。通过对真实历史数据进行仿真预测,并分析对比,结果说明使用微观仿真模型进行短时交通预测是可行的。

Micro-simulation technology was proposed to forecast short-time traffic-flow on Freeway. Traffic state on freeway in the future can be predicted by using real-time data from loop on road as input of simulation system. In the paper the method how to deal with the real-time data so that it can satisfy real-time and dynamic requirements was expatiated. The experimental results show that short-time traffic forecast by using micro-simulation model is feasible.