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同盟援助可靠性的再检验——同盟国家得分与同盟得分结合的方法 被引量：2

Reevaluating of Military Alliance Aids Reliability:Combining the Score of Allies and Alliance
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摘要 本文选取1816—2003年间所形成的同盟和在此期间爆发的与同盟相关的战争,采用同盟国家得分与同盟得分相结合的方法,在考察同盟盟约特殊性的基础上,分析同盟援助的可靠性,并对与此相关的三个假设进行检验。 By using the method of combining the score of allies and alliance,this paper has carried out an investigation of the performance of the allies in related wars during 1816—2003.Based on the study of the particularity of the alliance treaties,the paper has analyzed the reliability of military alliance aids,and examined three related assumptions.
作者 杨银厂
机构地区 天津科学学研究所 南开大学
出处 《外交评论（外交学院学报）》 CSSCI 2008年第6期72-81,共10页 Foreign Affairs Review
关键词 同盟援助可靠性 同盟得分 同盟国家得分 同盟国家援助率
分类号 D819 [政治法律—国际关系]
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参考文献22

  • 1Brett Ashley Leeds et al. , Reevaluating Alliance Reliability : Specific Threats, Specific Premises, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.44, No. 5, October 2000, p. 686.
  • 2John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions", International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3, Winter 1995, pp. 13--14.
  • 3George W. Downs et al. , " Is the Good News about Compliance Good News about Cooperation?" International Organization, Vol. 50,No. 3, Summer 1996, pp. 379--406.
  • 4J. David Singer and Melvin Small, Formal Alliances, 1815--1939 : A Quantitative Description, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 3,No. 1, January 1996, pp. 17--19.
  • 5A.N. Sabrosky, Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War, in J. David Singer, ed. , The Correlates of War H,New York: Free Press, 1980.转引自 Brett Ashley Leeds et al., Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises, pp. 689---691.
  • 6Brett Ashley Leeds et al. , Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises, pp. 686--699.
  • 7Brett Ashley Leeds et al. , Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises, p. 688.
  • 8J. David Singer and Melvin Small,Formal Alliances, 1815--1939: A Quantitative Description, p. 5.
  • 9沈志华.《试论中苏同盟破裂的内在原因》,见http://www.shenzhihua.net/zsgx/000167.htm.
  • 10Brett Ashley Leeds et al. , "Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) Coding Sheet", http ://atop. rice. edu/download/seareh/ATOP3200. pdf.

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外交评论（外交学院学报）
2008年 第6期

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