弹道导弹防御预警系统弹道预测误差分析

Analysis on Trajectory Prediction Error of Warning System in Ballistic Missile Defense

基于所建立的辅助坐标系,通过一系列坐标变换对弹道导弹中段防御预警系统的弹道预测过程进行了合理分解,有效地简化了预测状态的表达形式和计算过程.在此基础上对跟踪雷达正弦坐标系下弹道预测的误差进行了分析,给出了误差的工程计算方法和蒙特卡洛仿真结果.分析过程和仿真结果表明,利用该方法得到的预测误差与实际预测误差水平相吻合,其计算过程较传统方法简单、高效.

Based on the auxiliary coordinate system established, the process of the trajectory prediction in ballistic missile midcourse defense warning system was decomposed through a series of coordinate transforming, which simplifies the expression form and calculation process of the predicted states. The trajectory prediction error in sine coordinate of the tracking radar was analyzed, and its calculation method in engineering was also given. The Monte Carlo simulation result was given. Analysis and simulation result shows that the prediction error achieved by this method is equivalent to the actual result, and its calculation process is simpler and more efficient than the traditional method.