弹道导弹最优突防策略研究

Research on Optimal Penetration Strategies of Ballistic Missile

为提高弹道导弹突防能力,寻求最优突防策略,建立弹道导弹突防与反导系统拦截体系对抗模型,分析反导系统对弹道导弹的拦截过程,运用系统论和随机服务理论方法,计算反导系统的拦截概率,给出了弹道导弹突防概率计算模型,在此基础上进行了弹道导弹突防对抗解析,建立了弹道导弹的突防弹头期望的解析模型.要有效提高弹道导弹突防概率,应先对反导系统进行雷达电子干扰、释放诱饵或火力攻击,降低反导系统预警雷达目标探测概率,采取多批次、多数量的集群攻击方式,减小每批次以及同一批次中弹道导弹发射的时间间隔.

To improve the penetration ability of Ballistic Missile（BM） and seek the optimal penetration strategy, the counterwork model between BM and the antimissile system was established. The process of antimissile system intercepting BM was analyzed. Using the method of system theory and random service theory, the interception probability of antimissile system was calculated, and a calculation model of penetration probability of BM was given. The penetration and conflict of BM was analyzed. The number of the anticipant penetration warhead was calculated. To improve the penetration ability, it should be done to disturb the antimissile system radar, release the bait and firepower attacking, reduce the radar detecting probability, adopt the many times and much quantitative attacking methods and minish the interval of the BM launching at the same time.