摘要
根据历年电力消费量数据趋势图拟合出与之相似的指数回归曲线,然后对其残差序列利用时间序列进行分析和识别,建立起适合我国电力需求预测的指数回归-ARMA(1,1)模型.
This paper base on the tendency chart fits the curve of exponential regression,furthermore, its residual sequence is analyzed and identified by the time sequence, and the exponential regression - ARMA ( 1,1 ) is established.
出处
《内蒙古民族大学学报(自然科学版)》
2008年第6期609-612,共4页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Minzu University:Natural Sciences
关键词
指数回归
ARMA模型
电力需求预测
Exponential regression
ARMA Model
Electric power requirements prediction