基于ARMA模型下的我国电力需求预测

Electric Power Requirements Prediction Based on the ARMA Model

根据历年电力消费量数据趋势图拟合出与之相似的指数回归曲线，然后对其残差序列利用时间序列进行分析和识别，建立起适合我国电力需求预测的指数回归-ARMA（1，1）模型．

This paper base on the tendency chart fits the curve of exponential regression,furthermore, its residual sequence is analyzed and identified by the time sequence, and the exponential regression - ARMA （ 1,1 ） is established.