我国松香市场容量和产量预测分析

Rosin China’s Market Capacity and Output Forecast Analysis

在对世界、国内、云南脂松香产业历史和现状进行分析研究的基础上,探寻市场需求量与GDP变化的规律和相关数学模型。以云南为例对省内、国内、国外市场的近、中、远3个阶段的脂松香需求量和产量,采用数量化的市场预测方法和手段——松香需求弹性系数分析法进行分析预测。研究分析表明,松香的市场需求量和产量与省内、国内、世界的年GDP值的变化密切相关,收集整理相关信息资料,求出各个市场需求的弹性系数,建立相关数学模型,对云南松香的市场极限容量和产量进行预测分析,通过分析论证得出较为可靠的预测值。

In the world, China, Yunnan fat Rosin industry history and current situation on the basis of the analysis, to explore the market demand and GDP and related changes in the laws of mathematical models. To the example of Yunnan province, domestic and overseas markets in the past, in three stages from the demand for rosin and resin production, a number of ways and means of market forecasts - Rosin coefficient of elasticity of demand analysis and forecasting method. Study analysis shows that the market demand for rosin and yield and the province, China, the world＇s GDP, the value of the change is closely related to compiling the relevant information, obtained all the elasticity of demand, the establishment of relevant mathematical model of the Yunnan Rosin Limit production capacity and market forecast analysis, through analysis demonstrated that more reliable forecasts.