基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性共因失效模型

Common Cause Failure Model of System Reliability Based on Bayesian Networks

研究了应用贝叶斯网络建立共因失效系统可靠性模型的方法。应用所建模型,对典型系统进行了可靠性分析,并应用Monte-Carlo数字仿真方法进行了仿真计算。结果表明,模型的计算结果与传统的定性分析结果相吻合,且具有较高的计算精度,证明了该理论模型的正确性和有效性。

Building a common cause fallure model of mechanical system reliability by applying Bayesian networks and this model was used to analyze the reliability of typical systems, such as series system, parallel system, series--parallel system and 2/3（G） system etc. At last, the system was simulated by applying Monte--Carlo method. The results show that the results of Bayesian network model are consistent with that of the traditional qualitative analysis and are very precision too, thus which proves that the Bayesian network model is correct and valid.