人民币升值对我国从美国进口大豆的影响——基于2005年7月至2008年4月间月度数据的实证分析

Influence to Soybean Importation of Chinese from USA Due to RMB Revaluation——Based on Monthly Data in 2005.7-2008.4 Demonstration Analysis

文章在对2005年7月至2008年4月间我国从美国进口大豆金额、工业增加值、人民币兑美元汇率(间接标价法)的月度数据进行HP滤波分析的基础上,经过ADF检验、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验,就大豆进口对工业增加值和人民币汇率两个变量进行了脉冲响应分析。实证结果表明,我国从美国进口大豆存在着一定的惯性,人民币升值和我国经济的快速增长都促进了我国从美国进口大豆。

This paper makes Hodrick-Prescott Filter analysis to the soybean amount of money which China imports from USA per month from July, 2005 till April 2008; industrial added value; RMB cashes an exchange rate of US dollar （indirect quotation） and based on the analysis above this paper also makes impulse response analysis to two variables： industrial added value from soybean import and RMB exchange rate, by the ADF test; Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. Demonstration result is indicating that there is a certain inertia in the import soybean from USA and both RMB revaluation and the fast growth of China＇s economy promote that China imports soybean.from USA .