美国“金融海啸”本质特征的动态分析及其启示

A Dynamic Analysis of American Financial Crisis and some Revelations to China

通过对美国20世纪80年代以来发生的三次泡沫经济危机的动态追溯与分析得出结论:虚拟经济与实体经济同时出现巨大泡沫是导致"金融海啸"的罪魁祸首,金融创新工具的滥用和监管缺位是其帮凶和推手,而资源金融的炒作贯穿危机的前后,加速了泡沫的形成,并重创了实体经济;美国"金融海啸"极有可能把世界经济拖入深度衰退的泥潭。中国应从中得到的启示是:努力避免虚拟经济与实体经济同时出现巨大的泡沫;在泡沫彻底破灭前不要轻易"救市",在泡沫彻底破灭后则要果断"救市",方法要科学,要善用预期、用好预期。

Through the dynamic analysis of the American economic bubbles since 1980s, we could find the fundamental reasons for the ＂Financial Crisis＂ which results from the subprime mortgage crisis. Some conclusions can be found after analyzing the American policies during three crises. Large bubbles which arise in fictitious economy and real economy simultaneously are the chief reason for the financial crisis. The misuse and supervision absence on financial innovation tools are other reasons. The financing speculation accelerates the bubbles and destroys the real economy. The American financial crises maybe plunge the world economy into depression. We can find some suggestions from the American financial crises. At any time it must avoid the emergence of bubbles on the fictitious economy and real economy simultaneously. Don＇ t rescue the market betbre the bubbles burst. While it should rescue the market decidedly after the bubbles burst, it should also take full advantage of the expectations.