我国储蓄投资失衡对经常项目失衡的影响——基于两缺口模型的实证研究

Impact of Chinese Savings and Investment Internal Imbalance on Payment Imbalance——Empirical Research Based on the "Two-Gap Model"

在以两缺口模型为理论基础分析一国储蓄投资失衡如何影响该国经常项目的基础上,具体分析了我国储蓄投资失衡、经常项目失衡的现状,并运用Eviews协整分析,检验了两缺口模型在我国宏观经济中的适用性,并得出结论:我国宏观经济内部失衡决定外部失衡,外部失衡不过是内部失衡外部表现。针对我国目前以内、外部失衡现状,提出两点建议:一是提高消费水平、完善资本市场机制以减少储蓄;二是保证投资需求稳步增长、调整投资结构。

Based on the theory of Two-Gap Model, this paper analyses how a certain country＇s current item is affected by its savings and investment imbalance. Furthermore, the paper discussed the current situation of imbalclusion that in China＇s macro-economy, the external imbalance is determined by the internal imbalance and the former is merely the outward appearance of the latter. In the last part of the paper, a summary is made on both issues of savings and investment imbalance and current item imbalance that China encounters, and a series of policy-related suggestions are put forward in the hope that these suggestions might be helpful to the solutions of the severe economic problems that China is facing.