西尼罗热传入风险评估模型的建立

Establishment of the Risk Evaluation Model of West Nile Fever Spreading to China

〔目的〕分析西尼罗热传入我国的各个风险因子,建立西尼罗热传入风险指标体系和数学模型;〔方法〕运用理论流行病学的原理,采用专家咨询法建立评估指标体系,采用专家排序法设定指标的权重,采用SPSS13.0进行统计分析。〔结果〕研究建立了西尼罗热传入风险评估指标体系,共包括3个1级指标和10个2级指标;采用专家排序法确定指标各权重,专家意见肯德尔和谐系数为0.72;进一步用数学模型表达式进行传入风险的综合描述。〔结论〕虽然本课题研究的结果为低等程度风险,但是评估值比较高,应该引起重视。

Objective To analyze various risk factors of West Nile fever spreading to our country, and to establish risk index system and mathematical model on West Nile fever. Method By applying epidemiological principle, the experts consultation method was used to establish index system, the Experts Arranges Method was used to set index weights for all level, while the SPSS 13.0 software was used for statistical analysis. Result The risk evaluation model have included 3 first indexs and 10 second indexs. The Experts Arranges Method determined index weights, the weight of indicators. Kendall Harmonious Coefficient in the expert opinions was 0.72, the expression of mathematical model gave the comprehensive descript on total risks. Conclusion This result for establishing the risk evaluation model is of great values of low grade risk, meanwhile the higher evaluation value have been paid attention.