南京近50年来气候变化及未来趋势分析

Analysis on the Future Tendency of Climate Change in Nanjing in the Last 50 Years

运用R/S分析方法,对1951-2005年南京气象站夏季、冬季和全年的平均温度、降水量、降水日数、日照时数、平均相对湿度等指标进行分析计算,提取南京市近50年来的气候变化所含的趋势性成分,探索了南京市未来的气候变化.研究结果表明:近50年南京气温在增加,但增温速率低于全国,尤其是夏季(增温速率比全国平均低0.11℃/10a)和冬季(增温速率比全国平均低0.13℃/10a),预测未来南京市的气温仍将继续升高,冬季的升温比较明显;未来冬季降水量将继续增加;近50年来日照时数逐渐减少(年日照时数每10年减少66.31个小时),未来日照时数继续减少;未来夏季继续变干.

By using R/S method, we analyzed the trend of mean temperature, precipitation, rainy days, sunshine duration and mean relative humidity in summer, winter and annual from 1951 to 2005 in Nanjing city. We withdrew the durative from the climate change in Nanjing during the last 50 years, and forecasted the future tendency of climatic variation in Nanjing. The results are summarized as below： the temperature increased, but the warming rate in Nanjing was lower than the average of China（lower 0. 11℃/10a in summer and lower 0. 13℃/10a in winter）. The temperature will rise continuously and more obviously in winter; the precipitation will rise continuously in winter;the sunshine duration decreased（ the reduction of annual sunshine duration 66.31 hours every ten years）, the sunshine duration will fall continuously; it will be more arid in summer.