基于内生经济增长的我国养老保险制度模型

China's Social Security Programs Based on Endogenous Economic Growth Model

结合我国现行的养老保险制度安排,在一般均衡的框架下构建了一个三期的动态内生经济增长模型,模拟计算了我国2000~2060年的经济增长路径,发现人口老龄化对物质资本积累和人力资本投资具有不同的效应.完全基金制下的人力资本投资低于现收现付制,而物质资本积累高于现收现付制.完全基金制下的经济增长速度先是高于现收现付制,而后则低于现收现付制.

A three-period dynamic endogenous growth model combining the social security programs of China was set up in the framework of general equilibrium, which simulated the economic growth paths of China from 2000 to 2060 with some given parameters. It was found that the aging population has different influences on capital accumulation and educational expenditures. The educational expenditures in the fully funded social security are more than those in the pay-as-you-go, while the physical capitals in the fully funded are less than those in the pay-as-you-go. The economic growth rates in the fully funded are firstly higher than the pay-as-you-go, while lower later.