基于灰色拓扑的公共聚集场所火灾预测模型

Prediction Model for Fire Accidents in Public Gathering Places Based on Grey Topological Theory

根据1991—2006年间中国公共聚集场所火灾统计资料,针对公共聚集场所火灾影响因子的不确定性和数据的波动性,运用灰色拓扑预测方法探讨公共聚集场所火灾发生的规律,并建立灰色拓扑预测模型,预测未来5年内火灾发生情况。结果表明,所建立的灰色拓扑预测模型的检验精度都达到"好"的标准。因此,采用该模型对公共聚集场所火灾发生情况进行预测,其结果比较可靠,可供消防部门参考。

On the basis of the statistical data of fire accidents in public places of China from 1991 to 2006 and with consideration on the uncertainty of factors influencing fire disasters and consideration on the fluctuation of fire data, the occurring law of fire accidents in public places is explored with gray topological prediction method. Then, a grey topological prediction model is established and applied to predict the fire disasters in the next five years in China. The result indicates that the accuracy test of the model meets the standard of ＂good＂, and the result predicted by this model is reliable and can provide a reference for fire fighting departments.