“碧利斯”(Bilis)台风远距离影响河北的数值预报检验

The validation of the numerical forecast for the remote typhoon(Bilis) effect on Hebei

2006年7月14日河北省中南部出现暴雨到大暴雨。是河北省2006年最强的一次降雨天气。其中石家庄市区降雨量80 mm;是该市"96.8"暴雨以来出现的雨量最大、强度最强的降雨过程。本文利用常规气象资料及新一代天气雷达、自动站和加密雨量站资料等,对暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:这次暴雨天气过程是由于"碧利斯"台风登陆北抬,台风和副高之间的气压梯度加大,700 hPa东南气流加强为低空急流,带来充沛的水汽;近地层的东北风为暴雨开始的触发机制,副热带高压的高温、高湿为这次暴雨提供了充足的能量条件。对基层气象台常用的几种数值模式检验结果表明:数值模式对本次台风和暴雨的预报已经达到较高的准确度,特别是T213模式对此次过程的形势场、风场预报准确,并且层次、时次多,具有较高的参考价值。

A heavy rainfall appeared in the south center of Hebei on July 14, 2006. And this was the most violent rainfall at Hebei in 2006. The rainfall of Shijizhuang is 80 ram. The intensity and the quantity of the rain in Shijiazhuang city is the biggest since August of 1996. Analyzing of the conventional meteorological data, the new radar data and the automatic station data showed that： the typhoon （Bilis） moved to north after landfalling and increased the gradient between the typhoon and subtropical high. The south-east wind in the south of the subtropical high united low-level jet, and transported enough moisture to the area. The northeast wind near the ground was the trigger mechanism of the rainstorm. The high temperature and moisture of the subtropical high supplied enough energy for the rainfall. Verifying the most usual model in the meteorological observatory showed that the forecast of the numerical model for typhoon and rainstorm is quite valid, especially the T213 model, it can forecast the situation field and wind field rightly. The numerical model improves the typhoon forecasting.