植被和大气CO_2浓度变化对中国东部水资源环境影响的模拟研究

Simulations of the industrialization effects on water resource environment in eastern China

利用区域气候模式与全球气候模式嵌套,模拟了近百年来植被及CO2浓度变化对东亚区域气候及水资源环境的影响。结果表明,东亚许多地区产生了升温现象,但这种温度变化在地域上具有不均匀性,内蒙古、东北及华北增暖最为显著,而四川北部一些地区却存在降温现象;近百年来植被及CO2浓度变化使东亚一些地区呈现出干旱化的趋势,尤其以淮河流域、山东半岛及云南地区最为明显,但长江、黄河中游地区、江南及台湾地区存在降水增加的趋势,从而使缺水的华北地区的干旱化进一步加剧,而黄河中上游地区的干旱化有所缓解,同时长江流域洪涝灾害的发生频率有增加趋势。

Using a regional climate model which was nested in a global climate model, the effects of industrialization on East Asian monsoon climate is simulated by employing the present -day vegetation or the preindustrial vegetation and corresponding CO2 concentration, and the changes in hydrology process, including vapor transportation, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff in eastern China during these periods are evaluated. Results indicate that industrialization leads to temperature rise in lots of regions, but the temperature changes are various for different areas. Temperature reveals marked rise in inner- Mongolia, northeastern China and northern China, while temperature fall exists in north of Sichuan. Industrialization also leads to drought climate in some areas of East Asian, especially in Huaihe valley, Shandong peninsula and Yunnan, but rainfall increase at middle reaches of Changjiang and Yellow River, and in Taiwan region. The changes of precipitation pattern induce more arid in the north of China, while aridity weakened at middle reaches of Yellow River, meanwhile, flood of Changjiang valley maybe reveals higher frequency.