南京地区闪电定位资料与探空资料的应用分析

The application of LLS and sounding data over Nanjing

利用江苏省闪电定位系统的观测资料，结合南京探空资料，分析了以南京探空站为中心的1°×1°的经纬度范围内，在两次探空放球时间段内所发生的闪电情况。分析表明，沙氏指数、700hPa与1000hPa假相当位温θse差、500hPa与700hPa假相当位温θse差、1000hPa温度、500hPa温度对南京地区闪电活动的实时预警有比较明显的作用，并定义了闪电概率指数，可用于预报0～30min内闪电的发生概率。本研究对南京地区雷电实时监测与预警有参考价值。

According to the data of lightning location system of Jiangsu province, this article analyzes the regulation of the lightning flash of Jiangsu province in 2005, and along with the sounding data of Nanjing, the situation of the lightning flash within the domain of 1°×1° grid around the city , and within the time interval during releasing balloon-sonde twice a day. The results showed that the factors such as Showaher index, difference of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature （ θse ） between 700 hPa and 1 000 hpa level, θse difference of 500 hPa and 700 hPa level, temperature of 1 000 hPa level and temperature of 500 hPa level, have more obvious effect on lightning flash early warning for Nanjing region. This article also defines the lightning flash index of probability, which gives primary forecast of the lightning flash. This article gives reference on surveillance of Nanjing region＇s thunder and lightning.