An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

在现在的纸，在发作和热在西方的太平洋在温暖的水池的上面的层满足的华南海夏天季风( SCSSM )之间的关联为时期用海洋学数据集的 Scripps 机构被检验 1955 1998 并且预言的一条途径 SCSSM 发作被建议。关联嘘在那里欠那存在内部 SCSSM 发作的十的可变性温暖的水池而非在它的中心附近的中心向西在区域与最大的关联系数在 1970 界定，从另外的因素暗示某些效果而且包含了 ENSO。因为关联为在 1970 前的时期是差的，在 1970 以后的温暖的水池的热内容异例被用来预先显示 SCSSM 的早或迟了的发作。一个理想的代表性的区域(为温暖的水池热内容的 1 °× 1 °) 在 3 ° N /138 ° E 与它的中心被决定。系在到中心的最近的道(道热带的空气海洋数组) 在 2 ° N /137 ° E，并且选择为预言计算热内容。在 2 ° N /137 ° E 的 TAO 绳索能被用来在上面的层与热内容预言 SCSSM 发作，这被建议，如果在 SCSSM 发作和温暖的水池的热内容之间的关联象的一样跑在 1970 以后。在另一方面，如果状况做，在 1970 前喜欢，代表性的车站与相对差的关联在 13 ° S /74 ° E 被决定，意味着在西方的太平洋的温暖的水池比印度洋在 SCSSM 发作起更多的重要作用。

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area （1°×1°） for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3°N/138°E. The nearest TAO （TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array） mooring to the center is at 2°N/137°E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2°N/137°E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13°S/74°E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.