中国南部样带植被NPP与气候的关系

The relationship between the vegetation’s NPP and climate of the transect in south China

以全球变暖为背景，以中国南部区域18．000-27．50°N，108．50°～112．50°E样带为研究对象，以纬度为梯度，应用CRU（Climate Research Unit殓球观测数据集和CO2体积分数倍增后的2050年模拟气候状况作为平衡态陆地生物圈模型BIOME4的气候驱动，对中国南部样带历史100a和未来50a间的潜在植被净初级生产力（netprimary production，NPP）和叶面积指数（leaf area index，LAI）变化进行模拟和统计分析。结果显示样带内影响NPP的主要因素为年最低温度和年均降雨量，影响LAI的主要因素为年均温度和年均降雨量。植被类型变化与气候变化所造成的NPP、LAI变化略有不同。样带较高纬度地区，植被类型变化与气候变化造成的NPP均值差异较小而LAI则差异较大。未来气候状况下NPP、LAI都有大幅度的增加，但不同纬度增幅不同。

With global warming as the background, applying an equilibrium vegetation model （BIOME4） driven by CRU global dataset and the climate data in the year 2050 with double increase of CO2 concentration, this paper simulated and analyzed the changes of potential vegetation distribution during the past 100 years and the future 50 years in South China transect which lies between 18.0°-27.50°N and 108.50°-112.50°E. The results show that annual lowest temperate and mean annual precipitation are the key factors influencing NPP of transect, while for LAI, the key factors are mean annual temperate and mean annual precipitation. The changing modes of NPP and LAI of different latitudes are the same no matter which referring method is used. However, vegetation and climate transformations have various impacts on NPP and LAI. The difference of LAI was remarkable in the higher latitude area, while the difference of NPP was quite small in this area. The climate prediction in 2050 indicates that NPP and LAI will increase greatly to different extent according to different latitudes.