中国降水量区域变化稳定性研究

Regional stability of summer precipitation change across China

利用中国气象中心160站点的实际观察资料,对中国半个世纪的降水变化进行了系统分析,发现中国的夏季降水变化稳定性有显著的纬度与海拔效应:纬度越高,方差值越小,降水变化的幅度也越小,稳定性越大;从海拔来看,海拔越高,降水稳定性越好,降水量的变化稳定性与海拔是成反相关关系。除过受区域水汽来源稳定性的影响,主要受全球降水稳定性的分布规律所制约;在海拔上,降水量稳定性的分布,除过受水汽来源影响外,还与水汽凝结的高度效应有一定的关系。

The summer precipitation variation series of 160 stations are analyzed to find the stability of precipitation change in 1951-2002 across China. Results showed that there is significant spatial and altitudinal effects of the stability of precipitation： the higher the latitude, the less the variances and the more stable the precipitation; and the higher the altitude, the more stable the precipitation. By analysis, we found that stability of precipitation is mainly affected by the global distribution pattern of precipitation stability and the stability of the vapor resources and coagulation altitude.