罕见重大突发事件应急实时决策中的情景演变

The Study on the Issues of Scenario Evolvement in Real-time Decision Making of Infrequent Fatal Emergencies

罕见重大突发事件有其独有的特征,针对这类突发事件,传统的"预测—应对"的应急决策范式已不适用,必须向"情景—应对"的应急决策范式转化。在充分界定罕见重大突发事件应急决策中的情景概念,分析情景演变的概念和内涵后,提出情景演变的网络表达方式,并建立起罕见重大突发事件中情景演变的分析流程。

The characteristic of infrequent fatal emergency is analyzed in this paper. For infrequent fatal emergency, traditional decision-making paradi decision-making paradigm of ＂scenario-coping gm of ＂forecasting-coping with＂ should be replaced by a new with＂. The definition of scenario in infrequent fatal emergency is discussed fully and the concept and the intension of scenario evolvement are analyzed in this paper. Network express mode of scenario evolvement is proposed and the analyzing flow of scenario evolvement is built.