中小型空调生产企业需求预测方法的研究

Demand Forecast Research for Medium and Small Sized Air-conditioner Manufacturer

空调是季节性比较强的产品,淡旺季需求与产能的不均衡会导致空调企业成本的增加。本文在分析空调产品需求特点及市场发展趋势的基础上,对国内中小型空调生产企业的需求预测进行研究,结合企业自身状况选择适用的需求预测方法建立完整的需求预测体系,并就其在实践中的运用给出具体说明。

Demand for air-conditioner has obvious seasonal characteristics which reflects enormous imbalance between demand and production capacity, and leads to great cost increase. Air-conditioner manufaeturers must adopt appropriate methods to management supply. Demand forecast is not only the basis on which manufacturers make production plans, but ＇also an important information source to the desig＇n of purchase and inventory plans. It is of great importance to air-conditioner manufacturers. Currently, the domestic market for the industry is nearly stable while the foreign market develops increasingly fast. In 2004, sales of the whole industry in the foreign market exceeded those in domestic market. The industry has found its new sources of profit increase. So, appropriate demand forecast for foreign market is of great importance. On a basic analysis of the characteristics of airconditioner demand and the trend of its market development, the demand forecasting of a middle-sized air-conditioner manufacturer was studied, suitable sale forecasting methods were proposed, a complete forcecasting system was established, and a detailed computing example was given.