城镇职工基本养老保险替代率预测及比较研究——以陕西为例

The Study on Forecasting and Comparing of Replacement Rate of Basic Old-age Insurance: The Case of Shanxi

在我国改革养老金计发办法、调整退休职工养老金待遇的背景下,作为反映退休职工生活水平的指标,基本养老保险替代率将发生较大变化。本文运用精算理论,针对新人、在职中人、退休中人、老人分别构建预测模型,以陕西省为例分析了不同群体基本养老保险替代率的变化趋势。结果表明:各群体基本养老保险替代率都呈现出下降趋势,2025年前后,可能面临基本生活无法保障的困境。各群体间的基本养老保险替代率差异较大:退休中人的替代率水平最高;老人的替代率水平最低;在职中人与新人处于中间状态。研究还表明,高龄退休职工的替代率显著低于同期的低龄老人,现行养老保险政策对他们的保障存在较大不足。

Replacement rate is an index of evaluating standard of living for retired employee, and it will change the trend when the government reformed the policy of the old-age insurance. So we built an forecasting model for young person ,working middie person.retiring middle person and old person. Then, we take Shanxi as an example for analysis. The main conclusion is as follows： The replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in a declining trend for all persons; And the retired employee will meet a living risk in 2025; and there is a main difference of replacement rate between four kinds of people. The results showed that the replacement rate and living of older retired employee is rather lower than younger retired employee.