基于BP神经网络专家系统的财产保险公司全面风险预警系统研究

Enterprise Risk Premonition System of Property Insurance Company in China Based on BP Neural Network and Expert System

为了克服传统的偿付能力监管所隐藏的风险因子考虑不周以及保险统计数据匮乏等的弊端,借鉴国内外权威保险监管机构和专家学者的最新研究成果,尝试提出了我国财产保险公司全面风险预警指标体系;利用BP神经网络和专家系统相结合的方法,构建了我国财产保险公司全面风险预警机制并进行了实证分析。结果表明,利用BP神经网络专家系统对财产保险公司进行全面风险预警,具有极高的预测精度和较强的鲁棒性。

Due to the disadvantages in insurance risk management, an enterprise risk premonition index system is put forward based on many latest findings from the insurance regulation organizations home and broad. On BP neural network and expert system, an enterprise risk premonition system of Chinese property insurance company is set up. Empirical results show that artificial neural network expert model is a promising method of predicting enterprise risk in property insurances in terms of predictive accuracy, adaptability and robustness..