陕北红碱淖流域水量变化及其影响因素定量分析

Quantitative Analysis on Water Volume Change and Impacting Factors for Hongjiannao Watershed in Northern Shaanxi Province

通过概化计算得到陕北红碱淖流域1998-2004年的水量补给和消耗，建立了流域水量平衡模型，使用Mat-lab软件建立了多因素线性回归模型，定量分析了红碱淖流域水量失衡的影响因素．研究表明：1998-2004年红碱淖流域年平均补给水量为1．06×10^8m^3，年平均耗水量为1．69×10^8m^3，年平均水量净消耗为0．63×10^8m^3。自然因素是影响红碱淖流域水量失衡的主要因素。降水量每变化1mm，对应于水量补给变化约为1．01×10^4m^3，流域年平均温度波动1℃，导致的水量变化约为1．24×10^4m^3，年平均风速波动1m／s，造成水量变化约为1．34×10^4m^3。流域内农业灌溉是人为因素方面的主要耗水部分，年均约为0．45×10^8m^3。由于自然因素的不可控性以及红碱淖流域社会经济的发展，要缓解流域水量失衡状况，必须采取有效措施减少人为因素造成的流域耗水量。

Water supply and consumption of Hongjiannao watershed during 1998-2004 were calculated with generalized methods and a water balance model was established. A multiple regression model was set up and the impacting factors of water volume change were quantitatively analyzed with the Mat-lab software. The results indicated that the annual water supply was 1.06×10^8 m^3 and the annual water consumption was 1.69×10^8m^3 in the watershed. Natural factors were the main driving force to the water imbalance in Hongjiannao Lake watershed. The annual average temperature variation of 1℃ and the annual average wind velocity variation of 1 m/s would cause the water volume change in the watershed of 1.24×10^4 m^3 and 1.34×10^4m^3, respectively. Moreover, the precipitation variation of 1 mm would lead to around 1.01×10^4m^3 of the Lake＇s water supply change. As a major water consumption of human activities, the annual average irrigation consumed about 0. 45×10^8m^3 water. It seems that some approaches should be adopted to reduce water consumption caused by human activities.