广东外贸依存度高低的判断及其趋势预测——基于外贸依存度的国际与国内比较

The Judgment and Long-term Trend Forecast of Foreign Trade Dependence Ratio in Guangdong Province: Based on International and Domestic Comparison

对外贸依存度进行区域比较并对影响外贸依存度的因素进行对比分析,从产业结构调整与贸易结构调整的角度对广东省目前外贸依存度的高低进行判断并对其长期趋势进行预测。结论表明:广东省的外贸依存度偏高,短期内将呈现波动,且在长期内将呈现下降趋势,其下降的幅度、持续的时间以及最终趋于阶段性稳定的外贸依存度水平高低将取决于产业结构、贸易结构以及人民币汇率波动等具体因素的影响。据此提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper compares the difference of RFTD among different countries and different provinces, then judges the level of the RFTD in Guangdong province and forecasts its long-term trend of the RFTD according to the view of industrial structure and trading structure. The results reveal that the nominal RFTD in Guangdong is high and will still rise in the following years, but the rising speed will slow down and in the long term will decrease after the transition. Finally, it proposes suggestions on foreign trade policy and economic development strategy.