广元市耕地保有量预测及指标分解

Prediction and Index Decomposition of Suitable Arable Land Quantity in Guangyuan City

[目的]为区域耕地的保护提供依据。[方法]采用预留法、粮食需求法和灰色模型3种方法对2020年广元市的耕地保有量进行预测;采用层次分析法对耕地保有量指标进行分解。[结果]预留法是根据地方社会经济发展需要和国家相关政策,测算耕地保有量。相对优越于粮食需求和灰色模型法,预测2020年耕地保有量为334099.98 hm2。依据各识别指标,确定权重,进行耕地保有量指标的分解。耕地保有量最大的区县是苍溪和剑阁,其耕地保有量达到72013.036、4908.60 hm2,分别占全市耕地保有量的22.30%和20.10%。耕地保有量最小的区县是朝天区,其保有量24219.63 hm2,仅占全市耕地保有量的7.50%。[结论]得到了2020年广元市各区县的耕地保有量分配方案。

[Objective] The study was to provide the basis for the protection of regional farmland.[Method] With 3 methods such as the total supply amount method, and food demand method,grey model,the suitable arable land quantity in Guangyuan City in 2020 was predicted.The analytic hierarchy process was taken to decompose the index of the suitable arable land quantity.[Result] According to the demand of regional social economic development and the related state police,total supply amount method could predict and measure a suitable arable land quantity,and it was superior to the grey model and food demand method.Its prediction of the suitable arable land quantity in 2020 was 334 099.98 hm2.According the identified index,their weight values were determined.The indexes of the suitable arable land quantity were decomposed.The county with the biggest suitable arable land quantity was Cangxi and Jiange.Their suitable arable land quantity was 72 013.03,64 908.60 hm2 resp.,being 22.30% and 20.10% of suitable arable land quantity in total city.The county with the least suitable arable land quantity was Chaotian region and its suitable arable land quantity was 24 219.63 hm2 and it was only 7.50% of suitable arable land quantity in total City.[Conclusion] The distribution scheme of the suitable arable land quantity in 2020 in Guangyan City was obtained.