中国同欧盟贸易条件变化和波动情况的经验分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Variations and Fluctuations in China's Terms of Trade with EU

本文在联合国统计司Comtrade数据库的基础上对中国同欧盟贸易条件的变化情况和波动情况进行了经验分析,结果发现:(1)从1987—2006年,中国同欧盟的整体贸易条件、初级产品贸易条件和制成品贸易条件都出现了一定程度的改善;(2)在中国加入WTO前后,除了高技术产品,中国同欧盟不管是整体贸易条件还是分类商品贸易条件,其波动性都是显著下降的;(3)减小中国同欧盟贸易条件波动的关键,一方面在于降低我国中技术产品进口对欧盟的过分依赖;另一方面在于改善中欧技术产品进出口贸易发展不平衡(进口大于出口)的局面。

Based on the Comtrade database of United Nations Statistics Division, this paper analyses the variations and fluctuations in China＇ s terms of trade with EU. Our conclusion is as follows： a. From 1987 to 2006, China＇ s overall terms of trade with EU, the primary goods＇ terms of trade and the manufactured goods＇ terms of trade all improved to some extent, b. Before and after China＇ s accession to the WTO, except high technology products, both the volatility of China＇ s overall terms of trade with EU and the volatility of terms of trade of commodities by groups decreased sharply, c. The fluctuations in China＇ s terms of trade with EU are mainly due to three factors. The key to reducing the volatility of China＇ s terms of trade with EU lies in reducing medium technology products＇ excessive dependence on EU and reducing the imbalance of trade of medium technology products with EU.