货币流通速度的变化与经济波动的实证分析

Empirical Study on Change of Monetary Velocity and Economic Fluctuation

本文使用1990-2007年年度数据研究了我国货币流通速度变化率与实际总产出增长率之间的动态关系。通过相关性分析、脉冲响应分析以及方差分解技术深入分析了我国货币流通速度变化率、货币供应量增长率对实际总产出增长率的影响,实证结果表明我国货币流通速度对实际总产出的增长具有"加速器"的作用。基于实证分析的结论同时结合当前我国的经济形式,本文认为加大降息力度并实施积极的财政政策对防止经济的下滑具有极其重要的意义。

Using correlation analysis,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition technology, this paper investigates the relationship among the change of money velocity and economic fluctuation over the period 1990-2007. The evidence suggests that the money velocity is an accelerator to the economic increase in our country. Lastly, based on the empirical findings and the economic situation in China, this paper proposes some policies to stop economic depression in our country.