基于企业生命周期的财务风险预测

Financial risk prediction based on the life cycle of enterprises

根据企业生命周期理论,针对企业处于初创期、成长期、成熟期及衰退调整期4个不同阶段的特点,建立基于现金流量的财务风险预警模型,以期及时发现风险、规避风险,延长企业寿命.应用算例表明,计算结果的平均相对误差为2.8%,平均相对精度为97.2%,预测结果比较理想,该预警模型具有一定的应用价值.

According to the enterprise life cycle theory and the 4 different characteristics of embryonic stage,growth,maturity and decline of the adjustment,the paper established the financial risk warning model based on cash flows in order to identify risks,avoid risks and extends the life of enterprises.Application examples show that the relative average error of results is 2.8 percent,the relative average accuracy is 97.2 percent,the forecasting result is quite ideal and has certain application value.