全流通过程中股票市场格局的变化趋势

Judgment on Fundamental Changes in Chinese Stock Market under Complete Circulation

从一个经典的动态不完全信息信号博弈模型的视角分析当前中国股票市场解禁的非流通股股东与现存普通流通股东的博弈行为,结果表明:当前针对大小非减持的信息披露机制有其积极意义;同时我国股票市场会发生一些重大变化,特别是价值发现功能和经济晴雨表的功能将逐步增强。

From the perspective of dynamic games with incomplete information we analyze behavior of two parties, non-tradable shareholders and tradable shareholders, in Chinese stock market. We conclude that the information disclosure system in the process of reducing holdings is essential for separate equilibrium which stands for high efficiency of capital market, and that some big changes will take place in stock market, in particular pricing of shares is more reasonable than before and stock market will reflect the performance of Chinese economy better than ever.