我国东南地区电离层f_oF_2经验模式及预测

Empirical model of ionospheric f_oF_2 in southeast area of China and its prediction

利用我国东南地区的6个电离层站数据分析了该区域的气候学特征,用统计本征模方法构建该区域foF2月中值的经验模式,并分析各阶本征模系数和级数的变化特点,最后用实测数据检验该模式的可靠性。结果表明:本征模方法分析具有一定的物理意义,其系数可反映foF2的11年,年和半年变化,基函数可反映foF2的周日变化和短期振荡,各阶级数可反映出电离层的年度异常,半年异常和季节异常等变化。而且本征模方法预测的foF2月中值可靠性较高,能反映东南地区电离层foF2月中值的主要变化趋势与时空分布特性。

The climatic characteristic of ionospheric f0F2 in the southeast area of China is studied on the basis of data from six ionosondes, a empirical model is constructed by using the statistical eigen functions and the characteristics of various coefficients and series is analyzed. The reliability of the model is verified by the measured data. It is shown that the model can reveal some physical meanings. The coefficients can reflect the 11 year, annual and semi annual variations and the basis functions contain the daily and short term variations respectively. The eigen series can denote the annual, semi annual and seasonal anomalies. The prediction results show that the method can reflect the main changes and the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of the southeast area of China .