基于GIS的热带雨林地区滑坡敏感性分析——马来西亚金马伦高原个案研究

GIS-based susceptibility analysis of landslide in tropical rainforest area: a case study of Cameron Highland,Malaysia

滑坡敏感性分析对灾害评价和预测具有重要的作用。以马来西亚金马伦高原为研究区,选择坡度、坡向、地表曲率、岩性、构造、土地覆盖、地貌类型、道路和排水系统等9个要素作为评价因子,探讨运用G IS和RS技术获取、管理滑坡灾害信息,和热带雨林地区湿热环境下滑坡灾害敏感性的分析方法。条件概率模型和逻辑回归模型分别应用于滑坡灾害敏感性分析与制图,通过比较滑坡敏感性的计算结果与历史滑坡信息,验证了两种方法的有效性,结果显示,条件概率模型和逻辑回归模型的预测精度分别为77.3%和83.6%,逻辑回归法具有较好的描述精度;滑坡敏感性分析中土地利用和土地覆盖、道路设施等因素具有较高权重,人类对雨林的垦殖和开发提升了该地区滑坡发生的敏感度。

It is very important to analyze the landslide susceptibility for hazard evaluation and prediction. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the landslide susceptibility using different evaluation models for Cameron Highland, Malaysia, and nine factors are selected such as topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature, lithology, .distance from lineament, land use and land cover, geomorphic characteristics, distance from road and drainage and so on. Based on GIS and RS technology, the methods to extract and manage the landslide information, as well as landslide susceptibility analysis of tropical rainforest environment are discussed. Conditional probability and logistic regression model are applied to susceptibility analysis and mapping, and the analysis accuracy is about 77.3% and 83.6% respectively through the comparison and validation between landslide susceptibility index and landslide occurrence location, so the logistic regression model is recommended; At the same time, the landslide factors such as land use and land cover, distance from road take much higher weight, which means that land reclamations and exploitation are mostly causative of landslide in this tropical rainforest region.