中国钢铁产业:控制出口,还是主导世界?——钢铁产业需求前景与发展战略解析

China’s Iron and Steel Industry:Restricting Export or Dominating the World?——Demand Prospect and Development Strategy of Iron and Steel Industry

工业化、城镇化和全球化是影响中国钢铁需求前景的主要因素。钢铁需求在工业化后期达到高峰,完成工业化时间越晚的大国,人均钢铁消费高峰值也越大。到2020年前后,中国年粗钢消费量有可能接近甚至超过12亿吨。中国钢铁生产具有比较优势,应该充分利用全球化趋势,把主导世界钢铁市场作为中国钢铁产业的中长期发展战略。通过强化环境准入标准,发展循环经济,推进钢铁产业技术革命,建设世界钢铁技术创新中心,以解决资源和节能减排压力。

China＇s iron and steel demand prospect is constrained by industrialization, urbanization and globalization. In view of the fact that iron and steel demand will reach a peak in the late industrialization, the lower industrialization will lead to the higher per capita steel consumption peak. It is predicted that China＇s annual crude steel consumption in 2020 or so is likely close to or even more than 1,200,000,000 tons. Based on a comparative advantage of iron and steel production, China should view the domination of the world＇s iron and steel markets as its long-term development strategy in the process of globalization.